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INDUSTRAIL REVOLUTIONS

 

History suggests that the great Economic Transformations occur within the convergence of the Infrastructure Regimes.

The Great Pivotal Economic Changes in the World History have occurred when new Energy Regimes converge with new Communication Regimes , Logistics Regimes and Social Regimes.

  1. Coming together of Steam Power, Print Press Technology and Rail Road Infrastructure gave birth to the 1st Industrial Revolution.
  2. Coming together of Oil/Electricity Power, Telephony and Automobile gave birth to the 2nd Industrial Revolution.
  3. Coming together of Renewables/Hydrogen Power, Cyber Physical Systems and Driverless / On Demand Mobility / Hyperloop / Space Rockets is giving birth to the cusp of 3rd/4th Industrial Revolution.

 The infrastructure that emerges out of such convergence shrinks time and space, connecting people and markets in more diverse economic relations. When those systems are put in place, economic activity advances moving a classic bell shaped curve that ascends, peaks, plateaus and descends in tandem with the strength of the multiplier effect established by the above convergence dynamics.

Within such convergence are seen the fortunes of all the wealthiest men that the world has ever seen. We are on the cusp of the 3rd and 4th Industrial Revolutions and hence a small exercise was done to identify wealth/value creation opportunities ( Future Moonshots ) that lie herein. A correct methodology is needed for future MoonShots that we can bet upon. These moonshots ( the new economic drivers ) shall go mainstream in next 6 , 12 , 18 , 24 …….months and hence commercial participation becomes timely relevant if we track them for our business integrally or under new ventures.  Broadly the Moon Shots can be classified into the following types :

  1. MoonShots Around Industrial Revolution Infrastructure : These Industrial Revolutions have evolved in the constant pursuit to maximize the aggregate efficiencies. The 2nd Industrial Revolution based infrastructure has peaked out as was seen during the Oil Prices Swings and Financial Crisis. Aggregate energy efficiency is the “ratio of useful to potential physical work that can be extracted from materials. During the period from 1900 to 1980 in the United States, aggregate energy efficiency…steadily rose along with the development of the nation’s infrastructure, from 2.48 percent to 12.3 percent…leveling off in the late 1990s at around 13 percent, while Germany reached 18.5 percent and Japan led the world at 20 percent aggregate efficiency with the completion of the Second Industrial Revolution infrastructure. Despite a significant increase in efficiency, which gave the United States, Germany , Japan extraordinary productivity and growth, nearly 87 percent of the energy used in the Second Industrial Revolution was wasted during transmission. Further efficiency gains under the current fossil fuel-based infrastructure are limited, since the technologies designed for this system, such as the internal-combustion engine and the centralized electricity grid, have few productivity gains left to exploit. However, studies indicate that, through a transition to an IoT infrastructure, it is conceivable to increase aggregate energy efficiency to 40 percent or more in the next 40 years, amounting to a dramatic increase in productivity beyond what the economy experienced in the twentieth century unless they are cut short by the exponentially increasing dangers of climate change and species extinction. This growth shall give birth to the Trillion Dollar Startup era as we unleash 10 -100 X Global GDP Growth.

Infrastructure Regimes

Agricultural Revolution

5000 BC-18thCentury

1st Industrial  Revolution

19th Century

2nd Industrial  Revolution

20th Century

Cusp Of 3rd / 4thIndustrial  Revolution

21st Century

Our Opportunity

Energy

Horse Power and Water

Steam

Oil and Electricity

Renewables Internet, Energy Buildings, Hydrogen Storage, Intelligent Grid, Fuel cell Vehicles.

 

Pioneer the Decentralized Energy Regime using emerging Business Models

1.      Collaborative Commons

2.      Social Commons

Communications

Writing

Cheap Printing

( convergence of linotype and press )

Telephony and Media, Telegraph, Telephone, Radio, Television, Electric typewriter, Computers, Electrification of Machinery.

Internet, Mobile Computing, Wireless Technologies , Digital Networking, Cyber Physical Systems, Green Technology.

Pioneer the Decentralized Communications Regime using emerging Business Models

1.      Collaborative Commons

2.      Social Commons

Logistics

Mechanization

Rail 

Road

Combustion Engine, Automobile

Logistics Internet, Autonomous and Driverless Cars, On Demand Mobility, Hyperloop, Space Rockets.

 

Pioneer the Autonomous Logistics Regime using emerging Business Models

1.      Collaborative Commons

2.      Social Commons

Social

City States, Hydraulic, Civilization

Factory Based Cities

Suburban Conurbation

Interconnected “village ecologies”, Mass Entrepreneurship

Pioneer the Social Regime using emerging Business Models

1.      Collaborative Commons ( producer companies etc. )

2.      Social Commons

 

  1. Moon Shots Around Doubling Patterns :
    • Technology is becoming a forcing function. Moore’s Law which said that the computing power of transistors double every year is no more limited to tech only. We have many Guttenberg moments ready to blow-up anytime in all economic sectors provided we adopt the right method to find them. Doubling patterns are seen in every phase of our life now.
    • In neuroscience the resolution at which we can image the brain is doubling every year.
    • For drones the price performance is doubling every 9 months
    • In biotech the speed at which we can sequence genome is doubling every 6 months.
    • Solar cells are doubling every 6 months in their price performance and have been for over 40 years. At this pace we can hit 100% energy supply for the world in 14 years. Thus energy which was scarce for entire history of humanity is about to become abundant. 
    • Each of these technology while doubling, where they intersect that adds a whole multiplier to the equation and that as an aggregate affect is profound.  If you take solar and intersect with AI and apply that to sensors you create an autonomous ELECTRIC CAR.
    • Quantum Computers with only a few thousand entangled qubits (we're currently at 512) will be available in next 14 months capable of solving discrete optimization problems than all of the classical computers combined could compute in billions of years. What kind of disruption they shall bring in is unimaginable.
  1. MoonShots Around Collaborative Commons :
    • It is the first new economic paradigm taking root since the advent of capitalism and its antagonist socialism in the early 19th century. This has a major impact as it leads to Zero Marginal Cost Business Models that can be highly disruptive. Take the case of UBER or AIRBnB. In both cases the marginal cost of adding a new asset is nearly zero. The advent of internet led to reducing the cost of demand to near zero and now we have the collaborative commons leading to near Zero Cost of Supply. We are beginning to witness the bare outlines of an emerging new economic system. Our Reliance Foundation Producer Companies could be a business model that could be democratized on a platform. Other Moon Shots lie at intersections of Internet, Social, Mobile, Cloud, Big Data Analytics, 3D Printing, Renewable Energy, IOT, Cognitive Systems, Nanotechnology, Robotics, BlockChain, Quantum Computing and more. These are part of the methodology to track most promising amongst them all and cerate a roadmap for our timely participation to ride the Exponential S-Curve.  
    1. MoonShots Around Social Commons :
    • The process of communing reimagines social resources not as top down services delivered by the state to the people , but as activities and relationships co-designed and co-produced by lay people and professionals with control anchored at the local level. Upcoming Moon Shots are in Smart Grid, Connected Car, Smart Homes, Artificial Narrow Intelligence, Smart Cities, Next Gen education, Connected HealthCare, Sharing Economy, Automation of Everything, Autonomous Vehicles, Health Life extension, Energy Internet, Maker Economy, Money 2.0, Circular Economy , Artificial General Intelligence, Institution 2.0, Logistics Internet, Empowerment Economy, Human 2.0, Decentralization of Everything, Human Machine Convergence, Democracy 2.0, Artificial Super Intelligence, Radical Life extension and more. These are part of the methodology to track most promising amongst them all and cerate a roadmap for our timely participation to ride the Exponential S-Curve.  

    The Moonshots : 

    1. Internet Of Communications ( Manage Better ) : Renewable energies, Production, recovery, Distribution, Storage, Smart metering
    2. Internet Of Renewables ( Energy - Power Better ) : Housing & Environment, Materials, Inclusive eco- neighborhood
    3. Internet Of Logistics ( Mobility - Move Better ) : Transports and Logistics (transportation modes, infrastructures materials, innovative lean logistics, driverless solutions)
    4. Entrepreneurial Regions
    5. Next Society
    6. Performance Contracting
    7. Buildings as Nodes
    8. Food : Production, distribution and consump- tion patterns (agriculture, manufacturers, retailers, horeca, end consumer, etc)
    9. Industry : Transformation of traditional business models in the industrial sector
    10. Finance 2.0 with Public Bonds : Innovative finance approaches / vehicles (Fin- Tech, impact investment, participative finance, e.g. crowdfunding...)
    11. Smart economy : Digital for sustainability: smart solutions for a post-carbon economy , Digital & Ethics: Open-source & governance, data protection, privacy, digital preservation
    12. Circular economy : Optimization of resource and material flows system Resource efficiency - Sharing Economy
    13. Prosumers AND social model : Labor, tax and legal aspects

      Impact of the rise of new economic models (lateral power: sharing economy, crowd economy...) Work organisation, prevalence of the human dimension, social solidarity/cohesion

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